This is why I'm building my house myself. My cost in materials is about half the current median price. No debt.
Building houses yourself used to be much more common. With modern tools and access to information it is easier than ever. Just a classic mix of risk and hard work.
Nice overview of the situation. I agree with your assessment of the factors driving home price inflation, and the way it ties into the overall movement towards neofeudalism. If you're interested in looking outside the largely fraudulent Keynesian economic theories that they teach in school (e.g., the proposition that "typically there’s a strong and direct inverse relationship between interest rates and asset prices" is demonstrably false, but it gets repeated and taught as accepted wisdom anyway), I recommend checking out the work of Martin Armstrong. https://armstrongeconomics.com/blog
When I first learned about the 1929 crash as a boy in school, it didn’t make sense to me. “Why couldn’t everybody just pay back the money they were owed, until the circle completes itself?” Nobody could ever answer this question; none of the adults had seriously investigated it, they merely accepted it as true.
The answer? Compound interest. The debts far exceeded the money available, so the debtors took their homes from them, making out like bandits.
It was basically caused by predetermined, coordinated mass-selling by bankers, a sharp increase in the rediscount rate plus the widespread calling of loans: “Paul Warburg arranged the 1929 stock market crash; first he advised all member banks to get out of the stock market or sell it short on March 9, 1929, then on October 24 the Federal Reserve Bank suddenly increased the rediscount rate to 6%, thousands of orders hit the exchange to sell “at market”, and six days later the Federal Reserve Bank ordered the contraction of brokers’ loans in the amount of $2.3 million, the combination of which caused the crash. Congressman Louis T. McFadden stated “It was a carefully contrived occurrence. The international [central] bankers sought to bring about a condition of despair so that they might emerge as the rulers of us all."“
My impression is that the most targeted areas are: building; auotomotive; nutrition; reproduction.
In the past they tried to make us build less and desire small houses, drive less (and use public transportation more), neuter ourselves and abort more, eat less and eat greener. The subtle and carrot-based propaganda was all-directional and sustained over years, yet, except re lowering natality (also a spontaneous will of people), and unlike every other time, their coaxing was fully ineffective.
They realized that those goals (which have their common trait in being earth-saving, perhaps not in a misguided way) were attainable only with forceful direction. Thence, the stick replaced the carrot. We are under the stick now — but they aren't so naïve as to call and present it as a stick: it's still dressed in a carrot's peel.
It was decided to make consumption judged excessive impossible through inflation and regulation (for example, all city mayors, with a synchronicity not unlike that we saw with the lockdown and vaccination campaigns, have taken, and are taking more of, measures to make owning and using a car in the urban area ever more costly and less easy). They are proceeding not too overtly or rapidly, cleverly, but at the same time at an accelerating and somehow quick pace.
I am not sure their decision to force a fall in consumption to preserve Earth is misguided.
The earth is wildly overpopulated based on the rate of natural resource consumption and biodiversity die-off, and due to these reasons - especially due to rapidly declining EROEI (energy return on energy invested) which powers modern civilization - there is going to be a much smaller population in the future compared to what we have now, unless maybe SpaceX starts bringing lots of off-world resources to the planet, something I highly doubt. My criticism of our elites is (1) it is much more painful to reign in a global population on the back-end than thinking sustainably about population control on the front end, (2) the *wrong type of people* are running the show, i.e. utterly arrogant and myopic 20th generation anti-western civilization financial parasites who have lost any relation to reality beyond maintaining control, and (3) these people have brought out the very worst humanity has to offer in terms of encouraging short-term consumption and greed. It's like doing a deal with the Devil where he promises his supporters power and wealth in return for destroying the world, then at the end he betrays them too because that's what he does.
Great read, appreciate the thourough break down of the actual inflation rate as people just tend to write you off as a conspiracy theorist when you tell them the gov't habitually replaces the items they use to determine inflation to manipulate the rate. If you dont mind I had 2 questions
1. When the bubble inevitably pops again, do you think investors will start buying midsized homes in addition to starter homes (perhaps mega corporations start offering housing as a form of payment)?
2. Do you think they'll take hard steps to prevent people from leaving the system in the near future. For example, extremely high exit taxes if you try to leave for somewhere cheaper, or continued "shortages" of building materials & excess bureacracy if you try to build your own home.
Thanks Morose. Re #1, it's possible, although the economics don't currently favor investors buying existing homes at scale. If or when this bubble "pops" the energy released from it will ultimately be used to usher in central bank digital currencies and consolidate elite power further (I write "if" because our elites are attaining a lot of their objectives with infinite monetary printing, handing those funds to themselves and letting everyone else pay the consequence via inflation).
Re: #2, building material costs will only continue to go up due to infinite monetary printing. I don't know about the "near" future for higher exit taxes but down the road probably. As the system continues to lose legitimacy it will continue to shift from a soft control model to a hard control model. The left have already burned all their legitimacy; now we will watch the right do it...
As someone who doesn't naturally understand what can be read on blogs for or economy people, I'd like if you could host someone on this Stack giving an account of the EU's economic realities in the way you give one about the USA's.
I am not sure, but I believe the EU does no infinite "printing"; yet re inflation, and what appear to be the goals behind wanted inflation, the situation is close to full overlap with what you tell.
It would be nice to have someone explain how does the EU follow the same centrally determined policies in view of the same centrally determined end goals, and that is very much and well achieved even without the unlimited debt making.
I'll say that I don't think the Rise of Hitler was planned in advance, I do think he was genuine and that he was an unforeseen element. But that he also in a way played into the enemy hands, and that real hatred was born when he made the Rothschilde 'swab the decks' so to speak. This seems to have offended America and the small hats at the time.
That aside I agree with your every stance here, but have begun to think that the Great Reset or a version of it already happened in 1945.
With property taxes and such and the way the Boomers behave and were conditioned, I wonder if we live in the Post-Reset era and this 2030 plan (or now 2050) isn't a tightening up of the noose.
Your view of the Russian debacle is very likely. Over here in Canada most are frustrated with the hostility suddenly shown towards us, with many youths now utterly despondant at the hatred directed our way. Same goes for my friends in Europe, but they're already getting angry for themselves and our behalf. A sense of betrayal is in the air, and the Left, foreigners and Boomers here are crowing about the stupidity of youths' for having hopes placed on Trump pushing for some mercy for them. Honestly, the mood is so black, I've no words. Suicide rates are expected to rise, as is gang violence (which is already rising against Indians and I believe now Americans).
The only push here is to join the EU, I've mixed feelings. Properties are cheaper across the Atlantic, the Euro is stronger but I hate globohomo organizations.
Frankly Canada's screwed, we have hatred to the south, Japan our biggest Asian partner destroyed now with the 1 trillion $ demands and now only EU to look to. Tarrifs would smash us to pieces and the expected 70% drop to our currency is something that has most reacting with horror and terror.
You did a very nice job compiling all of this information and presenting it in a well written piece. I suspect and fear you are right. Going out with a whimper and not a bang..
I'm hoping for more insights on the impending failure of this plan and our transition into the age of Aquarius as it's starting to make me very depressed reflecting on all this from being situated in a mega-hive in rainy Air Strip 1 under the mantle of the Starmer regime!
Thanks James. Yes, the current situation *is* depressing, and it looks to me like their plan is proceeding apace with the masses eagerly buying into the Current Thing "right wing resurgence" narrative. Of course, the elites aren't perfect; their last major misstep was Trump's 2016 win, and the 10/7 false flag wasn't pulled off well either. The best we can do at this time, from what I see, is educating ourselves and others about the actual structure of our global system, refuse to fall for the Current Thing or give it our attention, continue our individuation processes and try to live beneath our means financially.
I used to be a naiive Austrian who thought that prices and interest rates were correlated. "Surely the price of homes will come down as the cost of servicing a loan increases, that's what happened in the 80s!"
But the lawlessness is totally out of control now. Once reserves were monetized in March of 2020 and BlackRock, Vanguard, et. al. were legally able to intervene in real estate and equities without loaning new money into existence, it was clear that none of these instruments would ever be affordable again.
Smart man. I agree with you that the lawlessness is so brazen and out of control now - there is nothing holding back the parasites as they gorge on the remainder of the corpse of Western civilization.
I also agree that this bubble feels different than previous ones in the sense that our elites win whether or not they pop it - they can keep printing to infinity and simply seize the funds they created, triggering mass inflation in the lower classes and leading directly to neoliberal feudalism (which is what has been happening so far); or they could pop the bubble - which is the largest in human history - and cause panic among the masses, and then offer the CBDC dialectical solution which will result in the greatest loss of freedom in human history.
Hi Andrew, that's a broad question. To avoid becoming the victim of neoliberal feudalism I suggest you identify areas of your life that you have a competitive advantage - whether that be your own intelligence and skills, your friendships, your relationships such as family or friend businesses, etc. - and lean into them, because getting ahead today is much more about who you know than what you know. Also, to live beneath your means - to recognize that these trends are far advanced and advancing further and material reality is going to become harder for most people moving forward.
From a broader perspective the issue is one of educating others as to the structure of this reality -- i.e. a global parasitical privately owned central bank system which owns all of the media and the security services they use to enforce their will. Both the mainstream left and the mainstream right (including Trump) are controlled by this structure, and those that sell hopium are not your friend. Developing different values through our individuation process and different beliefs (I'm attracted to gnosticism) is an important part of this process.
(I will be following your work closely....great essay!) Our young adult son insists that he can't afford an apartment near his work (San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles)...but he has other passions that take his money...how lucky he is to have parents nearby with an extra room that we offer freely for as long as he will tolerate us (kidding).
Thanks Douglas. I think it’s great that your son lives at home and uses his income for other purposes (hopefully saving some of it) rather than spend much of it on rent. The percent of 18-29 year olds living at home is the highest it’s ever been in the U.S.: https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/22823.jpeg (the chart is through 2020 but is certainly higher now).
Sociologically, it shouldn't be a bad thing that kids stay with their parents longer. Vs. the alternative of enriching megacorp landlords by renting. Perhaps the more it is done, the less stigma there will be. One can hope. In Latin America it is still common for young women to stay with their parents until married. It would be a definite improvement if AINO adopted that custom.
Will the new situation regarding immigration fix this?
Honestly, I could see it going either way, as illegal immigration in construction was a way for the elites to paste over the impact of immigration on housing demand itself for awhile.
It seems it all depend upon whether Americans are willing to take these jobs or not but that itself depends on how quickly fake jobs and the rest of the regulatory regime are decimated.
I don't think so. For one, I don't think Trump will deport very many illegals -- 20 million were let into the country in the past four years alone and his proxies have stated that *maybe* 1-2 million will be deported (I'm skeptical even of that number). Two, I think the primary cause of housing unaffordability isn't the lack of new housing or the high demand but rather the insane degree of monetary printing...
I guess I'm not nearly as pessimistic as I think the rate of change of events will spiral beyond any elite plan to control it but I get that concern.
Alternatively, even though I cringe at the way its neo-con, I have hope for what US control of Canada/Greenland/Gaza plus an updated Homestead Act could do...!
Trump wants lower interest rates which will increase asset values further - he’s already publicly leaning on the Fed. However, I expect the Fed to raise interest rates significantly in the next twelve months given how high unofficial inflation is.
Re: Russia/Ukraine, I think there will be a Minsk 3-style “peace” agreement which will be a total Western victory as it sets the stage to take the conflict into Russia proper at a future date. There were “peace” terms leaked in the media in the past couple days reflecting this…
This is why I'm building my house myself. My cost in materials is about half the current median price. No debt.
Building houses yourself used to be much more common. With modern tools and access to information it is easier than ever. Just a classic mix of risk and hard work.
https://youtube.com/@erik_mn
FYI Agenda 2030 has been renamed 2050.
That's a more realistic schedule.
It indicates even more that they mean business, at the same time.
Nice overview of the situation. I agree with your assessment of the factors driving home price inflation, and the way it ties into the overall movement towards neofeudalism. If you're interested in looking outside the largely fraudulent Keynesian economic theories that they teach in school (e.g., the proposition that "typically there’s a strong and direct inverse relationship between interest rates and asset prices" is demonstrably false, but it gets repeated and taught as accepted wisdom anyway), I recommend checking out the work of Martin Armstrong. https://armstrongeconomics.com/blog
I'll check it out, thanks. Is there a particular post of his regarding the relationship between interest rates and asset prices to point to?
I've been reading his work for about 20 years, so I'm not sure I can find the perfect example, but here's one: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/interest-rates-the-bell-curve/
And, more generally, here's a recent interview you might enjoy, as he discusses some of the topics you've addressed in your blog post: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/interest-rates/interview-on-interest-rates/
When I first learned about the 1929 crash as a boy in school, it didn’t make sense to me. “Why couldn’t everybody just pay back the money they were owed, until the circle completes itself?” Nobody could ever answer this question; none of the adults had seriously investigated it, they merely accepted it as true.
The answer? Compound interest. The debts far exceeded the money available, so the debtors took their homes from them, making out like bandits.
It was basically caused by predetermined, coordinated mass-selling by bankers, a sharp increase in the rediscount rate plus the widespread calling of loans: “Paul Warburg arranged the 1929 stock market crash; first he advised all member banks to get out of the stock market or sell it short on March 9, 1929, then on October 24 the Federal Reserve Bank suddenly increased the rediscount rate to 6%, thousands of orders hit the exchange to sell “at market”, and six days later the Federal Reserve Bank ordered the contraction of brokers’ loans in the amount of $2.3 million, the combination of which caused the crash. Congressman Louis T. McFadden stated “It was a carefully contrived occurrence. The international [central] bankers sought to bring about a condition of despair so that they might emerge as the rulers of us all."“
From: https://neofeudalism.substack.com/p/goals-motivations-and-strategies
My impression is that the most targeted areas are: building; auotomotive; nutrition; reproduction.
In the past they tried to make us build less and desire small houses, drive less (and use public transportation more), neuter ourselves and abort more, eat less and eat greener. The subtle and carrot-based propaganda was all-directional and sustained over years, yet, except re lowering natality (also a spontaneous will of people), and unlike every other time, their coaxing was fully ineffective.
They realized that those goals (which have their common trait in being earth-saving, perhaps not in a misguided way) were attainable only with forceful direction. Thence, the stick replaced the carrot. We are under the stick now — but they aren't so naïve as to call and present it as a stick: it's still dressed in a carrot's peel.
It was decided to make consumption judged excessive impossible through inflation and regulation (for example, all city mayors, with a synchronicity not unlike that we saw with the lockdown and vaccination campaigns, have taken, and are taking more of, measures to make owning and using a car in the urban area ever more costly and less easy). They are proceeding not too overtly or rapidly, cleverly, but at the same time at an accelerating and somehow quick pace.
I am not sure their decision to force a fall in consumption to preserve Earth is misguided.
The earth is wildly overpopulated based on the rate of natural resource consumption and biodiversity die-off, and due to these reasons - especially due to rapidly declining EROEI (energy return on energy invested) which powers modern civilization - there is going to be a much smaller population in the future compared to what we have now, unless maybe SpaceX starts bringing lots of off-world resources to the planet, something I highly doubt. My criticism of our elites is (1) it is much more painful to reign in a global population on the back-end than thinking sustainably about population control on the front end, (2) the *wrong type of people* are running the show, i.e. utterly arrogant and myopic 20th generation anti-western civilization financial parasites who have lost any relation to reality beyond maintaining control, and (3) these people have brought out the very worst humanity has to offer in terms of encouraging short-term consumption and greed. It's like doing a deal with the Devil where he promises his supporters power and wealth in return for destroying the world, then at the end he betrays them too because that's what he does.
Thank you very much for this excellent analysis. Appreciate the connect-the-dots.
Great read, appreciate the thourough break down of the actual inflation rate as people just tend to write you off as a conspiracy theorist when you tell them the gov't habitually replaces the items they use to determine inflation to manipulate the rate. If you dont mind I had 2 questions
1. When the bubble inevitably pops again, do you think investors will start buying midsized homes in addition to starter homes (perhaps mega corporations start offering housing as a form of payment)?
2. Do you think they'll take hard steps to prevent people from leaving the system in the near future. For example, extremely high exit taxes if you try to leave for somewhere cheaper, or continued "shortages" of building materials & excess bureacracy if you try to build your own home.
Thanks Morose. Re #1, it's possible, although the economics don't currently favor investors buying existing homes at scale. If or when this bubble "pops" the energy released from it will ultimately be used to usher in central bank digital currencies and consolidate elite power further (I write "if" because our elites are attaining a lot of their objectives with infinite monetary printing, handing those funds to themselves and letting everyone else pay the consequence via inflation).
Re: #2, building material costs will only continue to go up due to infinite monetary printing. I don't know about the "near" future for higher exit taxes but down the road probably. As the system continues to lose legitimacy it will continue to shift from a soft control model to a hard control model. The left have already burned all their legitimacy; now we will watch the right do it...
As someone who doesn't naturally understand what can be read on blogs for or economy people, I'd like if you could host someone on this Stack giving an account of the EU's economic realities in the way you give one about the USA's.
I am not sure, but I believe the EU does no infinite "printing"; yet re inflation, and what appear to be the goals behind wanted inflation, the situation is close to full overlap with what you tell.
It would be nice to have someone explain how does the EU follow the same centrally determined policies in view of the same centrally determined end goals, and that is very much and well achieved even without the unlimited debt making.
I'll say that I don't think the Rise of Hitler was planned in advance, I do think he was genuine and that he was an unforeseen element. But that he also in a way played into the enemy hands, and that real hatred was born when he made the Rothschilde 'swab the decks' so to speak. This seems to have offended America and the small hats at the time.
That aside I agree with your every stance here, but have begun to think that the Great Reset or a version of it already happened in 1945.
With property taxes and such and the way the Boomers behave and were conditioned, I wonder if we live in the Post-Reset era and this 2030 plan (or now 2050) isn't a tightening up of the noose.
Your view of the Russian debacle is very likely. Over here in Canada most are frustrated with the hostility suddenly shown towards us, with many youths now utterly despondant at the hatred directed our way. Same goes for my friends in Europe, but they're already getting angry for themselves and our behalf. A sense of betrayal is in the air, and the Left, foreigners and Boomers here are crowing about the stupidity of youths' for having hopes placed on Trump pushing for some mercy for them. Honestly, the mood is so black, I've no words. Suicide rates are expected to rise, as is gang violence (which is already rising against Indians and I believe now Americans).
The only push here is to join the EU, I've mixed feelings. Properties are cheaper across the Atlantic, the Euro is stronger but I hate globohomo organizations.
Frankly Canada's screwed, we have hatred to the south, Japan our biggest Asian partner destroyed now with the 1 trillion $ demands and now only EU to look to. Tarrifs would smash us to pieces and the expected 70% drop to our currency is something that has most reacting with horror and terror.
Thanks Krynn. I recommend reading Guido Preparata's "Conjuring Hitler" if you would like to see how World War 2 was arranged: https://www.amazon.com/Conjuring-Hitler-Preparata-20-May-2005-Paperback/dp/B013PQOVOG/ It may change the way you see the whole affair - it certainly did for me...
Alright, will do
You did a very nice job compiling all of this information and presenting it in a well written piece. I suspect and fear you are right. Going out with a whimper and not a bang..
Great work.
I'm hoping for more insights on the impending failure of this plan and our transition into the age of Aquarius as it's starting to make me very depressed reflecting on all this from being situated in a mega-hive in rainy Air Strip 1 under the mantle of the Starmer regime!
Thanks James. Yes, the current situation *is* depressing, and it looks to me like their plan is proceeding apace with the masses eagerly buying into the Current Thing "right wing resurgence" narrative. Of course, the elites aren't perfect; their last major misstep was Trump's 2016 win, and the 10/7 false flag wasn't pulled off well either. The best we can do at this time, from what I see, is educating ourselves and others about the actual structure of our global system, refuse to fall for the Current Thing or give it our attention, continue our individuation processes and try to live beneath our means financially.
Really value your account. Realistically speaking then, it might be a generational time horizon before we regai sovereignty in any meaningful sense.
I used to be a naiive Austrian who thought that prices and interest rates were correlated. "Surely the price of homes will come down as the cost of servicing a loan increases, that's what happened in the 80s!"
But the lawlessness is totally out of control now. Once reserves were monetized in March of 2020 and BlackRock, Vanguard, et. al. were legally able to intervene in real estate and equities without loaning new money into existence, it was clear that none of these instruments would ever be affordable again.
So I held my nose and bought a house.
Smart man. I agree with you that the lawlessness is so brazen and out of control now - there is nothing holding back the parasites as they gorge on the remainder of the corpse of Western civilization.
I also agree that this bubble feels different than previous ones in the sense that our elites win whether or not they pop it - they can keep printing to infinity and simply seize the funds they created, triggering mass inflation in the lower classes and leading directly to neoliberal feudalism (which is what has been happening so far); or they could pop the bubble - which is the largest in human history - and cause panic among the masses, and then offer the CBDC dialectical solution which will result in the greatest loss of freedom in human history.
So what do you believe can be done about any of this?
Hi Andrew, that's a broad question. To avoid becoming the victim of neoliberal feudalism I suggest you identify areas of your life that you have a competitive advantage - whether that be your own intelligence and skills, your friendships, your relationships such as family or friend businesses, etc. - and lean into them, because getting ahead today is much more about who you know than what you know. Also, to live beneath your means - to recognize that these trends are far advanced and advancing further and material reality is going to become harder for most people moving forward.
From a broader perspective the issue is one of educating others as to the structure of this reality -- i.e. a global parasitical privately owned central bank system which owns all of the media and the security services they use to enforce their will. Both the mainstream left and the mainstream right (including Trump) are controlled by this structure, and those that sell hopium are not your friend. Developing different values through our individuation process and different beliefs (I'm attracted to gnosticism) is an important part of this process.
(I will be following your work closely....great essay!) Our young adult son insists that he can't afford an apartment near his work (San Fernando Valley in Los Angeles)...but he has other passions that take his money...how lucky he is to have parents nearby with an extra room that we offer freely for as long as he will tolerate us (kidding).
Thanks Douglas. I think it’s great that your son lives at home and uses his income for other purposes (hopefully saving some of it) rather than spend much of it on rent. The percent of 18-29 year olds living at home is the highest it’s ever been in the U.S.: https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/22823.jpeg (the chart is through 2020 but is certainly higher now).
Sociologically, it shouldn't be a bad thing that kids stay with their parents longer. Vs. the alternative of enriching megacorp landlords by renting. Perhaps the more it is done, the less stigma there will be. One can hope. In Latin America it is still common for young women to stay with their parents until married. It would be a definite improvement if AINO adopted that custom.
Will the new situation regarding immigration fix this?
Honestly, I could see it going either way, as illegal immigration in construction was a way for the elites to paste over the impact of immigration on housing demand itself for awhile.
It seems it all depend upon whether Americans are willing to take these jobs or not but that itself depends on how quickly fake jobs and the rest of the regulatory regime are decimated.
I don't think so. For one, I don't think Trump will deport very many illegals -- 20 million were let into the country in the past four years alone and his proxies have stated that *maybe* 1-2 million will be deported (I'm skeptical even of that number). Two, I think the primary cause of housing unaffordability isn't the lack of new housing or the high demand but rather the insane degree of monetary printing...
I guess I'm not nearly as pessimistic as I think the rate of change of events will spiral beyond any elite plan to control it but I get that concern.
Alternatively, even though I cringe at the way its neo-con, I have hope for what US control of Canada/Greenland/Gaza plus an updated Homestead Act could do...!
Isn't Trump gonna build back better or something? And how likely is a nuclear war to kill Europe and Russia?
Trump wants lower interest rates which will increase asset values further - he’s already publicly leaning on the Fed. However, I expect the Fed to raise interest rates significantly in the next twelve months given how high unofficial inflation is.
Re: Russia/Ukraine, I think there will be a Minsk 3-style “peace” agreement which will be a total Western victory as it sets the stage to take the conflict into Russia proper at a future date. There were “peace” terms leaked in the media in the past couple days reflecting this…
"I own nothing" is fine so long it applies to every single human without exception
The funny thing is, at a certain level, from a certain point of view, no one really owns anything. Not really. It just looks like it.
But I get the point of the essay and these conversations.