Demographics is destiny: A comparison of group fertility rates

If current trends continue, the future is black, Islamic and primitive

This post discusses worldwide fertility rates, concluding that based on current trends the future is going be much blacker and much more Islamic, with a corresponding massive decrease in average IQ. This corresponding massive decrease in average IQ will likely end technological civilization because the average IQ will be below baseline requirements necessary to keep it operational, as we are seeing in South Africa today.

I previously discussed globohomo turning America into a permanent one party state like they previously accomplished in California by shipping in tens of millions of non-integrating, Democrat-voting illegals. I also covered the central bank owner’s brilliant divide-and-conquer strategy of turning everyone against each other on the basis of race, gender, sexual orientation and religion so they are too busy fighting among themselves to focus on the central bank theft, which is a big part of why homogenous societies have and are being destroyed worldwide.

This post will examine demographic change more broadly, reviewing fertility rates (both population-wide and group-based) and immigration trends, with a special focus on those groups who are resistant to the worldwide trends (excluding Africa) of rapidly declining fertility rates. This post asks the question: what will the future look like based on fertility rates and immigration trends in Europe and in America?

Global fertility rates have already dropped substantially and are projected to drop further

It will also articulate my pro-natalist position for western natives even with upcoming worldwide natural resource collapse.

With that said, let’s begin.

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The example of Israel

There was a major controversy in Israel prior to the start of the current war with Hamas surrounding the supremacy of their pro-globohomo Supreme Court (whose building was built and designed by the Rothschilds with many occult features). It’s parliament, called the Knesset, is much more religious and nationalist than the court, and they recently passed a law that allowed the Knesset to exert a measure of authority over the court. In return, there were mass pro-globohomo protests and attempts to have the law overturned.

I don’t think this controversy matters for Israel, even though it was getting a large amount of attention. This is because of the country’s changing demographics: the religious right have a lot more children than the secular pro-globohomo liberals¹ which traditionally controlled the country. The Israeli Muslims have many more children than them as well. Among Jewish women, the highest fertility rate was for ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) women at 6.64 children per woman, followed by religious women at 3.92 and 1.96 for secular women. The average birth rate of Israeli Muslim women is 3.0 and of Palestinians in Gaza, 3.8 in 2019.

In 2017, the Central Bureau of Statistics projected that Israel's population would rise to about 18 million by 2059, including 14.4 million Jews and 3.6 million Arabs. Of the Jewish population, about 5.25 million would be ultra-Orthodox Jews. Overall, the forecast projected that 49% of the population would be either ultra-Orthodox Jews (29%) or Arabs (20%). Keep in mind that in 1948 there were only 35,000-45,000 ultra-Orthodox Jews in the country, that’s how fast they have grown. Fertility rates matter.

Israel does not have an immigration problem because it has a large border wall with Egypt to keep out illegal immigrants, and expelled 40,000 illegal immigrants in 2018. Due to a lack of immigration, the changing demographic profile of the country is only affected by fertility rates, and that means that, unlike in America’s case which is drowning in illegal and legal non-white immigration (with plenty of Jewish support; immigration for thee but not for me²), Israel will increasingly become more and more nationalist and religious over time. The writing is on the wall. It’s preordained that the religious nationalists will win (unless the central bank owners label them an enemy, which it may, which is typically a mark of death³), therefore what does it matter what happens in this particular controversy? It’s a blip on the wall. And so is any other event that does not dramatically affect demographics; the only thing that matters are events that substantially change fertility rates or population sizes, or put in place the foundation for future such changes. For example, if Israel passed a law that substantially affected the fertility rate of the ultra-Orthodox, who mostly don’t work and live off welfare - by yanking their government benefits or forcing them to join the army, for example - that would then be an interesting development. Or if Hamas/Hezbollah/Syria/Iran unleash a total war and kill six or seven figures of Israelis, that would too substantially impact future demographics.

Therefore, the future of Israel based on current fertility rate trends is a relatively stable Jewish/Muslim balance, but one that will tilt aggressively further religious, right-leaning, and Ashkenazi (given the ultra-Orthodox are Ashkenazi) over time, which will ultimately wrest control of the country out of the hands of leftist Jews sooner or later (absent catastrophic events like mass death from regional war).

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Europe

Europe fertility rates are an absolute disaster:

Replacement fertility rates are 2.1, so the historic populations throughout Europe are dramatically sub-replacement. England and Russia aren’t included on the above charts but their fertility rates are also terrible. This is a sign of a dying, exhausted continent, from two World Wars, total domination by globohomo since World War 2 if not before, secularization, and a constant stream of demoralization propaganda through media outlets and education telling white Christians how evil they are. Note specifically Poland’s abysmal 1.44 fertility rate; there’s no future invigorated Christian nationalism coming from there.

Unlike Israel which has basically no immigration, Europe is being swarmed deliberately by its leaders as part of the Kalergi Plan with both huge amounts of Islamic and African immigration, which continue constantly. See also this post by

eugyppius

, which demonstrates that the very same Europe that closed its borders over a virus will not close its borders from migration from the global south. Islam is currently 10% of the French population if not much higher and the most common birth name in England is Mohammed and it’s a top 20 name in France now.

It’s not just immigration; Muslims have on average an extra child compared to non-Muslims within Europe and they are much younger than non-Muslims:

Given this, Islam is expected to continue to grow rapidly in Europe:

These figures are almost certainly on the very low end of expectations, as immigration should be expected to be much higher than their projections.

Note that Russia is no better off than the rest of Europe, and the framing of Putin as the defender and savior of the white Christian west is a bald-faced lie, a LARP to fool the uneducated masses in the west. Russia is being swarmed with Muslim immigrants, and they are being given preferred status that puts them above the law just like in Western Europe. See this post by

Rurik Skywalker

if you want the details.

Here is a video documenting the spread of Islam over time into historically Christian lands, a trend that continues unbroken to this day:

Although note that the 20 year so-called “War on Terror” may have broken the back of fundamentalist Islam given rapid secularization trends, and hence decreasing fertility rates, which is occurring throughout the Middle East:

Anyway, France already has a lot of no-go zones where police cannot enter and French sovereignty does not exist; the Muslims riot constantly and burn and destroy infrastructure and facilities. This link discusses how the process of Islamic immigration over time results in greater and more intense degrees of warfare against the host non-Muslim population until the country is conquered. French writer Michel Houellebecq wrote a highly publicized novel Submission in 2015 documenting the ongoing Islamification of France. Chinese blogger Spandrell claims that the west needs a new religion, but without one, what we are likely to end up with is Islam:

You have probably guessed where I'm going. I won't repeat myself. Europe now is in decline and all Europeans of good faith are trying to find a solution. We are being invaded by Islam, and nobody likes it. But the problem we have is not Islam. Is not Islamism. As bad as it is; which is horrible indeed. But ideas come and go. What doesn't come and go is the people. The gene pool. The problem we have is not Islam, it's foreigners. Arabs, South Asians, Africans, etc.. Most happen to be Muslim, many are not. The problem is not their ideas, as bad as they are. The problem is HBD. They're dumb. They're impulsive. They have different genes, going back tens of thousands of years.

Even if we could fix their culture, their family structure, the clannishness; which we can't. It still wouldn't matter. You could convert them all to Lefebvrism tomorrow and they would still destroy European civilization, and physically replace European people, who are busy watching football, binge drinking and wasting their youth studying socialist history.

But you can't say that. One can't object to the immigration of foreigners into Europe and North America on genetic grounds. I can't object to Arabs being dumb; because there's plenty of Europeans who are just as dumb, and they don't appreciate that we discuss population policy in terms of intelligence or other personality traits. Any rational, utilitarian discussion of population policy is a complete dead end because there is no workable Schelling point for proposing eugenics in a democratic society. It benefits no one. For one, we don't know that much about the genetics of behavior. Second, meritocracy is an excellent Schelling point. It's completely fallacious, but it works. The elite can justify their privilege because they have earned it, they have "merit", not just genetic luck. And the dumb can consolate themselves that there's nothing physically wrong with them; it's just tough luck, which could change any day. All human societies, every single one, believe that human behavior and performance depends on proper education. Of course they do.

And so we are left without sellable arguments against the invasion of Europe by fertile foreigners with a set of innate traits which make modern civilization impossible. We are left without arguments against Europe developing the demographic profile of Sudan, which implies the living standards of Sudan. So if we can't use this argument, what can we do? We can adopt a new religion. It doesn't matter which. As long as it ensures the physical reproduction of European peoples. As of now, Islam is a fix, if a bad fix. I hope we find a different one.

I have a reputation as a gloomy pessimist, but there's a different way of looking at this. Think of this post as a way of prodding you into action. We better come up with something damn fast, because there are only two alternatives. White Islam, or the physical disappearance of the European peoples.

Therefore between the forced Islamification of Europe by the anti-white, anti-Christian European elites, the completely open borders from Africa (which is only going to get much worse given Africa’s demographic explosion, where African fertility is still above 6.0+ and declining much slower than globohomo’s projections), and the wide discrepancy between native European and Islamic birthrates, the future of Europe is going to be increasingly Islamic and black, and breathtakingly fast on a historic timeline.

OGRE

wrote about this process back in 2009. Whether globohomo will slow the process at some point⁴ or whether they just want to gallop toward white and Christian total erasure is unknown, but as written elsewhere (toward the bottom), our globohomo overlords feel much more comfortable around Islam than Christianity.

African fertility is the highest in the world, and they will increasingly seek their fortunes immigrating to Europe

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United States: the overview

With respect to the U.S., I previously covered how mass immigration is being used by globohomo as a weapon of war to bring about a permanent one party state, just like what they did to California.

The current overall fertility rate in the United States is about 1.7-1.8, well below replacement. Here’s the chart historically:

While the country is rapidly transforming via open borders and unlimited illegal immigration (likely 5-10 million a year at present rates, mostly of Christian hispanics) and legal immigration (see here just for H1B visas, 780,000 in 2024 alone), the 1.8 fertility rate of the population is misleading because there are a number of groups with much higher fertility rates than the average, while the average for the rest of the population is much lower.

For example, the white only population of the United States was essentially flat between 2010 and 2020, although due to the regime’s hatred of whites it looks like a drop of 20 million who now choose to self-identify as white + something else:

According to the 2020 census, the U.S. is 59% white, but due to the unlimited open borders, Gen Z is expected to be the last generation with a majority white population. This is resulting in some very late increase in white group identity, as reflected in some recent comments by Elon Musk.

The fertility rates per ethnicity through 2013 are as follow:

They dropped further through 2018: Hispanic 1.95, Black 1.79, White 1.64, Asian 1.52. These are all terrible and have declined significantly further post-COVID.

But look at the age of the average white compared to the average non-white:

These non-white youth are incredibly liberal, per

Ryan Burge

:

This demographic shift coming over the next 20 years is going to be massive and very disruptive in extremely negative ways that will definitely lower everyone’s quality of life much further — except for the globohomo elite, of course.

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United States: sub-groups with higher fertility rates

There are a number of groups with much higher fertility rates within the United States than the average, as stated above. Muslims, for example, have the highest fertility rate of any religious group in America:

Let’s break down these figures further:

Among Christians, then, the Mormons have 3.4 children on average and evangelicals and Catholics have 2.3 each — not terrible all things considered compared to atheists and agnostics, anyway, and they’re above the 2.1 replacement number. But note that while the Mormon fertility rate is comparatively high at 3.4, it is falling quick rapidly, also see here:

On the other hand, the Amish have a fertility rate of 6.8, which is massive, given their conscious decision to live in an entirely self-supported community, use their hands with agriculture, and with a faith-based perspective which avoids nihilism. As a result of their continued success globohomo has tried to poison their food and water supply with the Palestine, Ohio toxic chemical spill.

Among Jews, the Orthodox and Ultra-Orthodox have much higher fertility rates than secular Jews. There is also a very high intermarriage rate among the secular that is resulting in rapid assimilation (discussed in the second part of that link).

Generally speaking the religious of all faiths have much higher fertility than the non-religious (confirmed here), and the more religious, the higher the fertility rate:

As a result of much greater fertility rates among the religious over the irreligious (as the former have a worldview at least somewhat resistant to globohomo’s unrelenting and bleak materialist nihilism), it should be expected that over time the religious population of the United States, Europe, Israel, etc. will continue to grow, propagating the spread of the “religious gene”:

In a [2011] study, Robert Rowthorn, emeritus professor of economics at Cambridge University, has looked at the broader picture underlying this particular example: how will the high fertility rates of religious people throughout the world affect the future of human genetic evolution, and therefore the biological makeup of society?…

“Provided the fertility of religious people remains on average higher than that of secular people, the genes that predispose people towards religion will spread,” Rowthorn told PhysOrg.com. “The bigger the fertility differential between religious and secular people, the faster this genetic transformation will occur. This does not mean that everyone will become religious. Genes are not destiny. Many people who are genetically predisposed towards religion may in fact lead secular lives because of the cultural influences they have been exposed to.”

The model’s assumptions are based on data from previous research. Studies have shown that, even controlling for income and education, people who are more religious have more children, on average, than people who are secular (defined here as having a religious indifference)….The more orthodox the religious sect, the higher the fertility rate, with sects such as the Amish, the Hutterites, and Haredi having up to four times as many children as the secular average….

Rowthorn’s model shows that, even when the religious defection rate is high, the overall high fertility rate of religious people will cause the religiosity allele to eventually predominate the global society. The model shows that the wide gap in fertility rates could have a significant genetic effect in just a few generations.

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A note on the human cost of collapsed fertility rates

I want to emphasize that the collapse in fertility rates has a major societal cost associated with it, not just economically but emotionally and spiritually, and especially for women. Because it’s not just that women are having fewer children; many are having none and then regretting it after it’s too late, and many others delay having children until the woman is in advanced maternal age and the risks to the child increase substantially. Globohomo tells women they can be happy and fulfilled “leaning in” and competing with men in the workforce, but this is a lie and ones who take too long to realize the lie often end up bitter and insane cat ladies. See what happened to Candace Bushnell, the inspiration for Sarah Jessica Parker’s “Sex and the City” character, where she deeply regrets not having children here, a path current female “icon” Taylor Swift is rapidly barreling toward.

Additionally, the lower classes who have lower IQs and are less educated have more children than those who are higher IQ and higher class, as Lee Kuan Yew identified decades ago, which is an IQ shredder and reverse Flynn effect (i.e. the population will get dumber over time) and which was brilliantly explained in the opening to the film Idiocracy:

Everything is backwards of what it should be.

Xtal

had a sad comment back in July about how globohomo convinced her not to have children until her 40s, and now it’s too late:

It’s sad and embarrassing for me to admit the following, but I’ve been putting this out there in the hopes that women younger than me will learn from my example.

I was raised (brainwashed, really) to believe I didn’t want children. This happened to a lot of children of Boomer parents. Boomers, resentful of their own children, holding an ideal of being perpetual carefree teenagers, have in many cases thwarted their offspring’s natural instinct to reproduce (thus idiotically depriving themselves of grandchildren).

I was taught the importance of education, career, travel, “self-fulfillment.”

I married a man who doesn’t want kids.

After experiencing the security and stability of marriage, I came to realize I do want children. My mind changed. His never did though. I stayed with him anyway, although I probably should have left, but I thought I was too old to start over.

Now I’m 48. I am grappling with the stark reality that it is too late at this point. I cry about it often, and am dealing with intense nighttime dreams of what I’ve missed out on.

My message to younger women: Even if you think you don’t want children, ask yourself whether, deep down, you really feel that way, or whether you’ve allowed yourself to be indoctrinated by outside influence.

If you’ve ever daydreamed about what you’d name your kids, ever wondered whose nose or hair your offspring would inherit, ever thought about what kind of mother you’d be, these are all indications that you probably want kids someday. They’re not just idle fantasies.

Get off your butt and make those dreams a reality before it’s too late. Find yourself a good man that you love, and who will be a good parent. The dreams won’t make themselves happen: you have to move them forward.

p.s.: Your late 30s is NOT “too late.” Women can conceive and bear healthy children up through 40ish. There are increased risks, BUT IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. So if you’re already older, don’t give up out of discouragement. I wish I could go back in time and shake some sense into my 35-year-old, hell, even my 40-year-old self.

Sad and depressing story.

The thing is women naturally are much more trusting of authority figures and authority messaging, and the messaging coming from these institutions is to delay childbirth, “just have fun fucking Chad on the wheel of hypergamy” until the last second, if then. It’s a form of mental and spiritual abuse and it was done deliberately and consciously by globohomo as discussed by Aaron Russo, who was friends with a prominent Rockefeller, in order to double the taxable population and make them easier to control by breaking up families. Here’s a 3 minute clip:

Men are told, alternatively, not to grow up, to turn into comic book worshipping incels, to remain mental children well into adulthood. As the blogger who wrote the excellent “Millennials, the Dying Children” article stated: “We'll be buried in Batman coffins, surrounded by our Xbox games. Maybe whoever buries us will finally discard the morality of the Boomers.”

This is part of the reason why implicit anti-natalists like Bronze Age Pervert drive me up the wall. He preaches to his followers to focus on aesthetics - nude bodybuilding and clever historical anecdotes using ridiculous “but super cool” spelling to his fatherless followers desperate for a father figure and guidance, overlapping the target audience with Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate - but that is only a route to hedonism and nihilism, both on a societal and a personal level. I am immensely distrustful of either implicit or explicit anti-natalists because that is the road to Death, and anyone with that message does not have your best interests at heart. If you want a role-model to emulate, find a nice, hardworking religious family with a bunch of kids to emulate, whatever your background.

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Concluding thoughts

Demographics is destiny. The two key components of demographic change are immigration rates and fertility rates. Track both and you will understand the future of what the world will look like barring extreme disruptive developments. The future of Europe is going to be Islamic with huge amounts of African immigration if current trends continue. The future of the United States is going to still be nominally Christian but much browner with tens or hundreds of millions more illegal immigrants if current trends continue, mostly of Latin American and Christian origin. After all, the white percentage of the world population was 25% in 1900 and is 6.5% today. The future of Israel is likely to remain as it is now with similar demographic splits, although it will become more Ashkenazi over Sephardic given the ultra-Orthodox birthrates.

These demographic trends should be considered with the backdrop of massively declining worldwide natural resources, which is likely to result in a major decrease in quality of life for all but the ultra-elite down the road, to the extent they don’t dramatically shrink the world’s population through war and famine. With that said, having many kids is a sign that one’s worldview is healthy enough to propagate itself into the future and have a say in the human story. Those living in white western civilization should, if they want their values and beliefs to be reflected in the future, have children well above replacement rate, regardless of the tragedy of the commons where individual and group incentives are at odds with worldwide sustainability.

Nonetheless, because both African and Islamic populations have much lower average IQs compared to white Christian countries (65-85 compared to 100), countries that succumb to the trends outlined herein will have increasing difficulty keeping infrastructure and technology at a first world level, which requires a higher baseline IQ to maintain.

Note Africa’s lowest continental IQ; combined with their highest in the world fertility (above 6) and their emigrating to Europe and elsewhere, the future will be much more African

Look at South Africa for the example; it’s infrastructure is crumbling and it suffers from massive blackouts, held barely together with a lot of band-aids by the aging technocratic white coterie, whose skills will die with them. The likely far-future, then, is a reversion technologically to third world status, if not worse. Perhaps the future is simply Islamic Africans worldwide living in 7th century mud huts sitting around the campfire telling stories of the mythological whites who, like Atlantis, disappeared for unknown reasons into the nether; in between raids on rival tribes and concerns about 7th century Djinns and spirits.

Thanks for reading.

1. Israel is an interesting example because the most rabid pro-globohomo proponents are left-wing Jews, and around 30% of Jews are ambivalent to Israel’s continued existence (absent danger to their own physical security) as it is an explicitly ethno-religious state, which is an unprincipled exception toward their goal of One World Government and a mixed race, mixed religion sludge worldwide.

2. During the critical period leading up to the 1965 Immigration Act that transformed the demographic reality of America, for example, per MacDonald, “Anti-restrictionist attitudes were held by the vast majority of the organized Jewish community—‘the entire body of religious opinion and lay opinion within the Jewish group, religiously speaking, from the extreme right and extreme left,’ in the words of Judge Simon Rifkind who testified in Congress representing a long list of national and local Jewish groups in 1948. Cofnas advocates the ‘default hypothesis’ that because of their intellectual prowess, Jews have always been highly overrepresented on both sides of various issues. This was certainly not true in the case of immigration during the critical period up to 1965 when the national origins provisions of the 1924 and 1952 laws were overturned—and long thereafter. I have never found any Jewish organization or prominent Jews leading the forces favoring the 1924 and 1952 laws—or those opposed to the 1965 law at the time it was enacted. Joyce (2021) shows the continuing powerful role of Jews in pro-immigration activism in the contemporary U.S., and, as noted above, there is substantial Jewish consensus on immigration into the present.”

3. According to Eustace Mullins, “the central bank owners adopted the Hegelian dialectic, the dialectic of materialism, which regards the World as Power, and the World as Reality.  It denies all other powers and all other realities.  It functions on the principle of thesis, antithesis and a synthesis…Thus the World Order organizes and finances Jewish groups; it then organizes and finances anti-Jewish groups; it organizes Communist groups; it then organizes and finances anti-Communist groups.  It is not necessary for the Order to throw these groups against each other; they seek each other out like heat-seeking missiles and try to destroy each other.  By controlling the size and resources of each group, the World Order can always predetermine the outcome.  In this technique, members of the World Order are often identified with one side or the other.  John Foster Dulles arranged financing for Hitler, but he was never a Nazi.  David Rockefeller may be cheered in Moscow, but he is not a Communist…a distinguishing trait of a member of the World Order, although it may not be admitted, is that he does not believe in anything but the World Order.  Another distinguishing trait is his absolute contempt for anyone who actually believes in the tenets of Communism, Zionism, Christianity, or any national, religious or fraternal group…If you are a sincere Christian, Zionist or Moslem, the World Order regards you as a moron unworthy of respect.  You can and will be used, but you will never be respected.”

4. Because they love divide and conquer tactics where the populations it rules are divided on race, gender, sexual orientation and religious lines so they are too busy fighting each other to focus on central bank theft; therefore they may want to keep a remnant of white Christians around.