The consolidation phase of the egalitarian ratchet effect
Locking in liberal gains.
This post argues that, on top of expecting Trump’s presidency to be a failure on correcting core governmental issues, it will lock in the liberal social gains made over the last decade. Hic sunt dracones.
Welcome back.
In
’s dour post where he recommends viewing the 2024 election through the prism of power politics and which I linked to within my last post, he wrote: “Crucially, this is not to blackpill—I’m not a ‘doomer’. This is simply an attempt to honestly and critically assess the situation, which is necessary for effective political action. Action requires strategy, and strategy requires predictive power. Accordingly, if we want to operate effectively and help bring about real change, there is an absolute imperative to evaluate the political situation, at any given time, in power-political terms, rather than ideological ones.”He is correct about this. One cannot fight what one doesn’t understand, and one can’t understand something without a grounding mechanism to interpret and incorporate new information. A grounding mechanism is a tool that one uses to assess whether new data is true or false and in what respects it is true or false. The main grounding mechanism I use is one of recursive prediction. It works as follows: based on your understanding of the world you make predictions about what will happen in the future. If they turn out to be wrong, you ask why they were wrong, then update your worldview in light of that new information. Do it over and over again, get lots of predictions wrong and make an ass out of yourself enough, and if you honestly look into why you were wrong each time and learn and grow from those errors then your worldview’s accuracy will eventually increase - never to 100% because we are all limited, finite beings and there is always more to learn and understand - “man plans, God laughs” - but we can get closer. Or as Robert Browning wrote, “Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, Or what's a heaven for?” Eventually I ended up with beliefs like the world order order as centralized above the level of the nation state, the egalitarian ratchet effect explaining society’s ever-lurch leftwards and the Rothschilds owning the world central banks.
When looking at the 2024 Trump re-election three things stand out:
He was facing multiple criminal trials just a year ago where he could have spent the rest of his life in prison, all of which have magically disappeared - poof! - even as many of his most committed underlings have been criminally and civilly convicted for allegations just as flimsy, while his most ardent supporters who showed up to protest election fraud on 1/6 rot in prison. Why were these charges dropped and pushed out for him and him alone?
Second, the ridiculously high value of Truth Social on the stock market - almost $7 billion, compared to Twitter’s current estimated $9.4 billion valuation - which very few people use. For example, Trump has 8 million followers on Truth Social compared to Twitter where he has 95 million, and no one else on Truth Social is anywhere close to as big a draw. Truth Social was allowed to be listed on the stock market back in 2022 while Trump faced multiple serious criminal trials. One may rationally perceive this as a backdoor $2.3 billion payoff.
Third, the institutional election fraud established in 2020 is still fully operational with nationwide mail-in-voting, Dominion electronic fraud, ballot harvesting, etc. None of that has gone away, it is all still right there to see. Anglin had a nice piece over at Unz where he correctly identified this core issue.1
Many otherwise intelligent people are hopelessly confused over the difference between Trump “winning” a rigged election and Trump winning an actual election (even though I ultimately voted for him). None of the blindly optimistic Trump cheerleaders can answer this question because the truth is self evident: Trump was turned behind closed doors and was allowed to win. Whatever he secretly agreed to in order to avoid prison and destruction is really bad stuff, at least in part related to total capitulation to the Israel agenda, and the extent of the humiliation will be revealed over time. This is why I believe his victory speech was so subdued. I understand the psychology of the cheerleading - it feels really good in the moment, it results in a lot of new subscribers because people love optimism, and what was the alternative to Trump? No one - but it’s cheap and does a disservice to one’s intellect and soul.
As I wrote on Notes and as a footnote in my last post, “There are certain times which serve as clarifying when one seeks to introspect into one’s own and other’s souls. The response to fraudvirus (“COVID”) was one of those times; I saw things from people I never would have expected otherwise. But an act of election winning serves a similar function from the other side; who is able to keep their wits about them, their reason in check, and not get carried way in the moment? Who can remain level-headed? I may not be doing any call-outs (what’s the point of drama?) but I’m always watching, always observing - mostly in disappointment.”
The red lines of the counter-elite are in play, manifesting as personnel is policy:
The head of Trump’s transition team and upcoming commerce secretary is a key perpetrator of the Tether fraud, per
(also see here and here),the Treasury Secretary will be a homosexual who worked for George Soros (also see here by
),ultra-neocon Mike Waltz will serve as National Security Advisor (also see here),
nasty deep state operative and closet homosexual Marco Rubio has been picked to be Secretary of State (who Ron Paul correctly strongly dislikes),
neocon Elise Stefanik is being placed at the U.N.,
neocon Israel First and psychopath low-IQ meathead Pete Hegseth was chosen as Defense Secretary (see this and this video posted by
, and this),an unsophisticated, unintelligent, anti-free speech Kristi Noem is nominated at Homeland Security.
makes similar points here,the odious Jared Kushner is back choosing personnel and running Israel/Palestine policy,
Matt Gaetz withdrew his nomination to lead the Department of Justice because he lacked the votes to be confirmed by the Senate, replacing his nomination with corrupt and self-serving Pam Bondi (also see here),
Tulsi Gabbard will be hopelessly out of her depth as DNI,
RFK has been preemptively neutered, and
Peter Thiel is not what he seems and is playing a deeper game on behalf of higher level elites.
These picks should signal that Trump will not be serious about combating the “deep state” and that he will pursue a neocon foreign policy.2 This isn’t entirely his fault, as cabinet nominees must be confirmed by a Senate which is hopelessly and permanently RINO due to the nature of democracy itself. Trump is apparently not even going to blanket pardon the 1/6 political prisoners, instead issuing pardons on a “case-by-case basis” which feeds into the false establishment narrative that some of the political prosecutions were justified. We’ll also likely see a play for West Bank settlement annexation and a continuation of the Greater Israel project. If you want a good cabinet, place Rand Paul and other MAGA Senators with strong proven voting records and who are confirmable in important positions. But that’s too much to ask, I guess. As
wrote,Step 1. Use publicly popular pro-America/Anti-Deepstate figures on campaign.
Step 2. Upon assuming power, dump these people or give them meaningless roles, all the while loudly trumpeting their words but not their (lack of) action.
Step 3. Appoint the same old war-mongers and bankers.
Trump did the same the first time - Bannon out within a year, Jared Kushner running his administration - so this really shouldn’t be a surprise. But I guess it is to most of Substack’s “dissident right” community. This isn’t anything new, either; 2008 “hope and change” Obama famously let Citigroup appoint his entire cabinet.
The consolidation phase of the egalitarian ratchet effect
I’d like to delve into an aspect I touched on only briefly in my last post. To succeed by dissident standards would require radical action: mass deportations on a scale never seen before in U.S. history (20 million left-leaning illegals were let into the country in the past four years alone) because America in on the verge of transformation into a permanent one party Democrat state, vote-by-mail election laws and Dominion electronic voting machines would need to be abolished nationally, and the Federal Reserve would either need to be nationalized or abolished based on the unfixable state of our national finances. These things won’t happen, and Trump looks poised to walk into a trap on immigration. But what will happen is what I call the consolidation phase of the egalitarian ratchet effect. I’ll explain what I mean by this, but first, a couple of comments by others.
argued in a comment to my last post that Trump represents the ascendancy and total victory of social liberalism:At the end of the day, the gushing over trump represents a failure of conservatism in this country just as absolute as election of Biden represented for real leftists in this country in 2020. The man is personally a liberal: has had many marriages and divorces, is promiscuous, doesn’t engage with western culture on more than a superficial level, has and ordered many abortions. He’s allied with arch liberals tech bros Peter Thiel, Zuckerberg and Elon Musk for gods sake. In some ways he’s anti-woke, but he supports gay and transgender rights that would have been unthinkable 20 years ago. The based trad Christian substack warriors who voted for trump are just as cucked if not more than the libs they think they’re owning.
Joshua is right about this. Social conservatives ultimately threw their lot behind the secular populist rebellion against Hillary in 2016 - voting for the lesser of two evils is such a tempting thing to do - but the price they paid for it was the evisceration of their beliefs. As
similarly argued,Republican Pivot Away from Heteronormativity, Toward Abortion: To be somewhat crass, I believe the GOP will continue to get gayer and try to put away the abortion issue. The reality is that abortion restrictions, even at the state level, may represent an electoral liability for Republicans going forward. Accordingly, under Trump’s watch, I suspect that the party will continue its move away from its traditional stance on the issue and potentially leave pro-life efforts on the state level to flounder. I believe the United States will basically reconstruct the conditions imposed by Roe v. Wade by enshrining it into state constitutions across the country.
Although I had problems with this post by
where he argues that “the deep left” won with Trump’s election - he conflates three types of leftism which are often at odds, i.e. social leftism of race/gender/LGBTQ egalitarianism, economic leftism (socialism), and religious leftism (secularism and atheism), which he mixes interchangeably which is way too sloppy for my tastes - he is correct that Trump is further normalizing homosexuality, transsexualism, giving up on abortion (leaving it to the states after Roe), and pursuing a level of race blindness that were simply unacceptable pre-Trump. As DLA states,“The Trump 2024 coalition was Elon Musk (a Reddit atheist), Tulsi Gabbard (a Hindu), RFK (a liberal hippie environmentalist), Vivek (another Hindu), Kushner (Jewish), JD Vance (married to a Hindu), Peter Thiel (gay), Steven Cheung (Chinese immigrant), Susan Wiles (divorced), Jason Miller (public extramarital affair), and Stephen Miller (Jewish).” And: “The Christian right were the cucks in this election. They sat in the corner of the Republican National Convention and watched as atheists, porn stars, Sikhs, and Hindus took over their party….During the first Trump term, white evangelical Protestants went from 15.3% of the population to 14.6% of the population. Trump can’t save these people, even if he wanted to.”
The craziest part of the 2024 RNC was Shabbos Kestenbaum’s speech gloating that he was suing Harvard for not being pro-Jewish enough. What a mind-boggling level of narcissistic arrogance or chutzpuh, what a total inability to read an audience - or simply not caring. Thinking that Jews just totally dominate the Republican party and no one can say anything different now.
On the opposite side, the self-admitted neo-Nazi Cesar Tort, who bitterly turned on Catholicism due to sexual abuse he suffered as a child, whose website is here and who grew up in Latin America, bitterly complains how de-racianated politics in Latin America are. There are right wing and left wing parties, of course, but these are entirely economic and religious parties; there is no concept of racial politics at all in the region. That is where the trends are headed within America as it continues to becomes a less white country. Because one requires a broad coalition to win national elections, as the country continues to become less white to win requires a permanent shift toward appealing to other groups. 2016 was historic white America’s last gasp for running on identity politics unless long-running trends dramatically change somehow.
Let’s put this together. The Biden/Kamala administration brought in 20 million left-leaning illegals within the past four years alone. Globohomo has normalized homosexuality, gay marriage, and increasingly transsexualism. Evangelicals, by supporting Trump as the lesser of two evils have given up on social conservatism, and the right has accepted a twice divorced, rampant cheater as their standard bearer. The right is now increasingly de-racianated, accepting homosexuals and transsexuals within it’s ranks (see “Caitlyn” Jenner), and after the repeal of Roe it will or has already given up on abortion as a national issue (correctly from a political perspective, as anti-abortion measures are wildly unpopular, although I think it should be banned after the first trimester except for the health of the mother). This is what we call the consolidation phase of the egalitarian ratchet effect.
The egalitarian ratchet effect was previously described here. Basically, the core values of a society ratchet or double down on itself over time unless or until that society collapses, is militarily conquered from without, or transvalues it’s core values into something else. The core values of Western society are egalitarianism rooted in Christianity, even though society is quite secular at this time. The “left” lead society leftward, then the “right” serve as the consolidation phase which integrates the gains made by the left before the left ratchet even further leftwards. Robert Lewis Dabney, the chief of staff of Stonewall Jackson, commented on how this process works in a bitter screed in 1897:
It may be inferred again that the present movement for women’s rights will certainly prevail from the history of its only opponent: Northern conservatism. This is a party which never conserves anything. Its history has been that it demurs to each aggression of the progressive party, and aims to save its credit by a respectable amount of growling, but always acquiesces at last in the innovation. What was the resisted novelty of yesterday is today one of the accepted principles of conservatism; it is now conservative only in affecting to resist the next innovation, which will tomorrow be forced upon its timidity and will be succeeded by some third revolution; to be denounced and then adopted in its turn. American conservatism is merely the shadow that follows Radicalism as it moves forward towards perdition. It remains behind it, but never retards it, and always advances near its leader. . . . Its impotency is not hard, indeed, to explain. It is worthless because it is the conservatism of expediency only, and not of sturdy principle. It intends to risk nothing serious for the sake of the truth, and has no idea of being guilty of the folly of martyrdom. It always when about to enter a protest very blandly informs the wild beast whose path it essays to stop, that its “bark is worse than its bite,” and that it only means to save its manners by enacting its decent role of resistance: The only practical purpose which it now serves in American politics is to give enough exercise to Radicalism to keep it “in wind,” and to prevent its becoming pursy and lazy, from having nothing to whip. No doubt, after a few years, when women’s suffrage shall have become an accomplished fact, conservatism will tacitly admit it into its creed, and thenceforward plume itself upon its wise firmness in opposing with similar weapons the extreme of baby suffrage; and when that too shall have been won, it will be heard declaring that the integrity of the American Constitution requires at least the refusal of suffrage to asses. There it will assume, with great dignity, its final position.
This is why elections ping-pong from Democrat to Republican and back again, cycle to cycle - burning the good will and unmet expectations until there’s a media blitz, a party shift and the process repeats itself as society lurches ever-leftwards:
So there you have it. Not only will Trump’s presidency be a failure in terms of fixing the national debt, cutting down on inflation (impossible without addressing the debt issue), kicking out the tens of millions hordes of left-leaning illegal immigrants (he may evict some of the worst criminal offenders and build some miles of wall as a very shallow “win”, but even that he may go about the wrong way), restoring proper election law, punishing the worst of the deep state offenders, dismantling the administrative state or pursuing America First instead of Israel First, as well as likely being the fall guy for war with Iran, World War 3, civil war or a stock market implosion, but his presidency will further solidify the cultural gains made by the left within the past ten years - after which society will rapidly lurch leftwards yet again.
I hope that I am wrong and that more positive things are ahead than what I’ve laid out. I would rather be surprised to the upside than to the downside, though, and based on my recursive prediction model as a grounding mechanism I’ll be happy to adjust my worldview accordingly to the extent I am wrong.
Let’s end this post with a mock predictive One Day in the Life of Donald Trump’s Greater Israel, inspired by Ivan Denisovich:
7:00 AM: You wake up groaning under 40% annual inflation. Fox News is extolling what a great honor it is to send Israel $50 billion dollars (the latest monthly extension) and what a great honor it is that the draft is being reinstated to fight in war against Iran which, unfortunately, requires boots on the ground. News claims that giant corporations have scaled back DEI, though, and they recommend doing your patriotic duty and signing up as soon as possible to help our greatest ally!
8:00 AM: You head to work (early, you need to work 2-3 jobs to not even make ends meet). The number of non-whites despite Trump's "mass deportations of illegals" is greater than ever - it almost seems like he's "illegally deporting" in reverse and bringing more in. Well, he did expand the H1b visa program for Indians by 2 million per year, but at least that's legal immigration, right?
9:00 AM: You receive an email announcing your draft number. Luckily selective service is digital and they have all of your information, so you don't have to go into a physical location! It's very convenient. Your draft number puts you at least a couple months out from service - the war will have to be over by then, right? ...right?
12:00 PM: You use your Trump-sponsored CBDC to buy lunch. Luckily it's not programmed yet to prohibit you from purchasing meat, but the news says those regulations are coming to help combat global warming.
2:00 PM: You try to go on the internet to Substack but, after the “Iranian hack”, internet use is strictly monitored - for your own good, of course. Reddit and Fox News are still easily accessible, though, so you can take comfort in that.
3:00 PM: It's always a strange thing watching liberals on the street wear pro-Trump t-shirts, but that's what it's come to. You observe liberals, obese boomers, and even a smattering of Mexicans and blacks wearing Trump t-shirts -- he's brought them all together. It almost brings a tear to the eye.
6:00 PM: Your obese liberal girlfriend is wearing her Trump t-shirt again as she waddles around your small, dimly lit apartment. "Look how reasonable and moderate I am, I can update my opinion to take in new information. Look, even Reddit has come around on him!" she exclaims proudly. You want to die.
8:00 PM: You look at your account balances - they're negative, you will need to take out another payday loan. You can't let yourself get fired either as Trump cut back on unemployment benefits (but not for non-whites).
10:00 PM: You can't take it any longer; you cry, and cry some more. There is no hope. You turn on Fox News and, like O'Brien, try to appreciate that it's all worth it because Israel just annexed parts of Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt. You're doing your part.
Thanks for reading.
He wrote in part: “I think people are getting way too excited, and many or even most of the material I see is bordering on delusional, QAnon tier lunacy. Bobby Kennedy is not going to be installed as the head of the CIA and uncover the mystery of the murders of his father and uncle, nor is Ron Paul going to abolish the fed. The FBI is not going to be sent into the tunnels under Comet Pizza. No one from the Biden Administration is going to be prosecuted, the coronavirus vaccine will not be investigated, there will not be mass deportations. You can screenshot this. None of that stuff is happening.”
I never analyzed the Biden cabinet in this manner because it wasn’t needed - dissidents knew he would hungrily serve his globohomo masters like the flimsy puppet that he was. There is a lot of confusion on the right over who and what Trump represents, though.
You're blackpilling super hard here, but I am confident that time will show these predictions are correct. There's a pulp fiction sci fi series I'm fond of by Richard Morgan. One of the books, Altered Carbon, was made into a Netflix series. The best book is "Woken Furies". Embedded in the story is a multi-generational political movement called Quellism. Using technology, the movement is able to go inactive and return many generations later.
I know you're not a fan of the "rural retreat" but I really see it as the best option. While not perfect, at least out here the majority of people do real work with their hands, are actively involved with their kids and the school, and it still feels like a real community where people come together for a common purpose to get things done. If there is any future for 'Murica it is places like this. I'm planning on retreating deep into FFA, 4H, volunteering at the school, helping aging neighbors stay independent, and finishing my debt free homestead. When times get tough, which is often, I look up to the sky and imagine my ancestors looking down with approval, since I know they went through the same struggles.
This globohomo system can't last forever. There are too many contradictions and physical impossibilities. When it is gone, there will be something else.
I still don't believe that Trump made a deal behind closed doors.
But I don't need to believe that to agree with your overall conclusions.
Dammit.