What would winning mean for dissidents under a Trump presidency?

The three structural issues that would need to be addressed.

In my last post I predicted that Trump’s second term would be a failure if he won. Here I will explain what his administration would have to address if he were to succeed and why he is unlikely to do so.

Welcome back.

First, let me offer congratulations the Trump supporters out there - you fought hard, screamed at the top of your lungs here on Substack and elsewhere to vote for him, and it’s nice to have a feel-good moment of a Trump win after the past four years of open-borders Hell (20 million illegals let in at minimum), massive inflation, a couple Trump assassination attempts, war with Ukraine and of course the 2020 stolen election.¹ Enjoy watching the liberals teeth gnash, hyperventilate, withhold sex and threaten to move to Canada which many of you seem to love (although this election was much more muted energetically than 2020 or 2016). And congratulations to crypto-mos, who seems to be benefiting from his win with Coinbase soaring 30% the day after the election and crypto up strongly across the board.²

While I was deeply undecided about voting for president, I ultimately did so in the last moment out of spite (

L.P. Koch

, one of the more spiritually evolved posters on Substack, also voted for Trump with his arguments here, here and here). I was unsure of what the result would be from the election, positive that Trump would win on actual votes but equally convinced that our elites decide the outcome using permanent institutionalized nationalized mail-in voting overseen by a Democrat voting “tsar”, electronic voting fraud, ballot harvesting, and outright ballot stuffing. As such, the reasonable conclusion is that our quasi-nationalist counter-elites were allowed to win by higher powers.

Rurik Skywalker

, bless his little blackpilled heart, agrees, as does

INRI_07

in this strong post.³ One may curiously note that Peter Thiel’s diabolical public-private partnership Palantir, which exists to spy on U.S. citizens on behalf of the government and route around constitutional safeguards, soared 23% on the day of the election before any of the polls closed. Vice President-elect Vance owes his success to Thiel.

The above 4% increase is the day after the election; it soared 23.47% on election day.

Regardless, savor the moment, enjoy it, bask in the fantasy of Trump “owning the libs”, take a deep breath, and then — let’s gently, ever so gently, return to reality.

Here’s a Reagan “It’s Morning Again in America” 1984 ad for your pleasure:

And here’s Yusaf Islam/Cat Steven with “Morning has Broken”:

I’m being gently facetious. As mentioned in my last post, I expect Trump’s presidency to continue neoliberal feudal practices (giant deficit and national debt), high inflation to continue unabated and most Americans to continue to get poorer, with Trump set up as the fall guy (or Vance if Trump is assassinated) for either war with Iran, World War 3, civil war, or a popping of the largest stock market bubble in history (with elites using mass public panic to usher in central bank digital currencies resulting in the greatest loss of freedom in human history). The right will go along with this program under Trump more than they would under a Democrat, as we saw with COVID.⁴ In other words, my prediction is that Trump’s second term will be a failure. In order to effectuate these objectives, our elites want the demoralized masses to buy back into the system they were increasingly doubting.⁵

Academic Agent

delves into this point here, as did this now-famous 4chan comment.

This post asks the question: what would a successful second Trump term look like from a dissident perspective? What core issues would have to be addressed? The purpose will be to offer a standard to judge this upcoming administration’s actions, as one should support a person or party only to the extent they abide by the principles one believes in, not blindly root for something like a Republican-vs.-Democrat sports-match or a cult of personality.

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The core structural issues

There are three core structural issues where, if they aren’t adequately addressed in the next administration, the country is finished: (1) immigration, (2) institutionalized vote-by-mail and other voting fraud, and (3) the national debt. This is because unchecked immigration is leading directly to a permanent one party state, voting fraud removes the remaining limited public influence on the electoral process, and the national debt is leading to permanent high inflation and lower quality of living. Other issues do matter such as eviscerating the federal bureaucracy, reverting from a service economy to a manufacturing one, reforming the media and education systems, and becoming more isolationist militarily and economically, but they are not problems that disrupt the feedback mechanism allowing the masses to influence governance nor financial problems that permanently impoverish current and future generations.

1. Immigration

Immigration presents one with a very simple math problem: non-whites consistently vote Democrat by substantial margins. Hispanics vote at minimum 56-58% Democrat for president (the ceiling on the Hispanic vote was set for George W. Bush who got 42%-44% of their vote in 2004 by pretending to be a Texas rancher and offering them free housing, precipitating the 2007 crash, although according to exit polls Trump may have surpassed the record with 45% in 2024) and blacks vote consistently ~90% Democrat. If you fill up the country with tens of millions of non-whites, either from them or from their liberal-leaning children one eventually end ups with what happened in California but on a national level, i.e. a permanent one party state.

Let’s look at this further. The fertility rate in the U.S. is below replacement level, which is 2.1 births per woman:

Yet this is the population of the United States:

Looking at the U.S. population from 1970 to 2020, it’s fertility rate was at or below replacement, yet the population grew from 200 million to 333 million. This is entirely due to immigration, both legal and increasingly illegal. This is a rapid and ongoing population replacement happening where whites have gone from 90% of the United States’ population to under 60% in under fifty years.

Biden/Harris, through traitor DHS head Alejandro Mayorkas, brought in at least twenty million illegals in the past four years alone.⁶ To fix this would require mass deportations on a level never seen before in American history. When I explain this simple second grade math to sophisticated parties, very smart people, their eyes glaze over or roll into the back of their head and they have no response. Their ability to do basic math is overruled in-the-moment by their desire to conform. It’s unbelievable.

One may note that while Trump won the popular vote in 2024 (74.5 million to 70.8 million), Kamala:

1. was a historically unpopular candidate (she received just 2-3% of the Democrat vote in the early 2020 primaries) chosen behind closed doors with no primary;

2. she pushed extremely bizarre policies and alienated capital by proposing capital gains taxes on unrealized gains;

3. she is very dumb (~90 IQ), as she could barely put sentences together and was unable to do live interviews;

4. she picked an extreme weirdo who had pedophile vibes as her VP;

5. Why did she campaign with Liz Cheney of all people?; and

6. her and Biden’s record on immigration and inflation was simply indefensible.

What this highlights is how close the election was between a historically unpopular Democrat candidate and Trump. If Democrats had gone with Mark Kelly, Gavin Newsom, Michelle Obama, etc. as their candidate it’s likely that due to demographic changes that it would have been a blowout election in favor of Democrats.

Attempting to reverse immigration trends, even if Trump cared about the issue and was effective (which he failed at during his first term) would create major problems for him. There would be endless lawfare from within the court system, exemplified by the Hawaiian district court judge who issued a nationwide injunction against the “Muslim immigration ban”. It would rile up liberals and elites and generate a massive public backlash. And even if he was successful, the entire capitalist model is built around forever profit growth, which is therefore built around forever population growth (more people to sell things to = higher profits). This is why when first world countries experience decreased fertility rates the system needs to import foreign workers to keep the economic ponzi scheme functioning. This pattern is repeated in every first world country. If there is a major decrease in population, there will be a large decrease in economic profits and an economic contraction, which could spiral from there. It is a catch-22 that is only resolvable if certain alternative values are placed long-term above economic prosperity, which the American population has close to zero stomach for.

2. Voting changes

If one hopes to win elections in the future what is required is not just demographic reversals but also reversing the election changes that occurred in 2020. The 2020 election resulted in seventeen million fraudulent votes through a combination of institutionalized and now permanent vote-by-mail fraud (the Democrat operative Marc Elias installed a Democrat “tsar” at the post office to oversee the votes), ballot harvesting, ballot stuffing and Dominion electronic voting fraud (where they sued those who complained about it into silence). The 2020 fraud was blatant:

Trump was allowed to win this time based on whatever backroom deal was worked out among the elites, perhaps as a response to the disastrous 10/7 false flag⁷ and to support whatever higher-level plans they have for him and his administration. Allowed is the key word because none of these voting issues have been fixed, therefore the only way he could have won is if our elites wanted him to. If one is to have any faith in elections moving forward then this needs to be reversed:

Without such changes our international elites will continue to be able to determine the outcome of every election moving forward, in line with my prior post about how we are now in an era of elite’s deciding - no longer just influencing - “elections”.

3. The national debt

The third core structural issue is the national debt. We currently have a $35 trillion national debt and a $2 trillion dollar a year deficit, which is catastrophic. In fiscal year 2023 the US federal government collected nearly $4.5 trillion in revenue. However, it spent almost $6.2 trillion.

Interest payments on federal government debt are projected to reach $892 billion in 2024. This is more than the government is projected to spend on defense and almost a third higher than what the United States spent on debt interest payments in 2023. Within ten years interest paid on debt will be greater than total non-discretionary spending according to the CBO. Here one can see interest payments on the federal debt as a percentage of government spending.

Here is the breakdown of what is owed to who as of 2022:

Note that the privately owned Federal Reserve owns a whopping 34% of domestically held debt. The Rothschilds are pigging out:

Here and below are the countries with the greatest debt-to-GDP ratio on the planet. Note that the U.S. is behind only Japan, Lebanon, Singapore, Sudan and Greece, and just ahead of Italy, all countries with disastrous finances:

Also see here which puts the U.S. Debt-to-GDP ratio at 129%. Debt-to-GDP ratios above 77% can hinder economic growth and (in some cases) place a country at risk of defaulting on its debts, which could wreak havoc on its economy and financial markets. For every percentage point of debt that exceeds the 77% tipping point, the annual real GDP growth rate of a developed economy will be reduced by .017 percentage points for each 1% the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds the tipping point.

Here is the U.S. Debt-to-GDP ratio between 1971-2022:

And here it is historically through 2010; note the peak was 120% in World War 2:

The Debt-to-GDP ratio in the U.S., then, is higher than it was during World War 2. Here’s where the Treasury projects it going into the future (lol):

Let’s put the picture together. The amount of U.S. governmental debt and the deficit is astronomically high. Unlike in 1980 when Paul Volcker crushed inflation by spiking interest rates massively (US inflation peaked at 14.8% in March 1980 and fell to below 3% by 1983 by raising interest rates to 20%), the U.S.’s debt is far too high to curb inflation in a similar way. If the Federal Reserve raises rates to combat inflation — which is currently around 20% when looking at the cost of normal living such as food, housing, health care, insurance, etc.; the official stats are fake — then the U.S. economy will be crushed. Yet if the Federal Reserve lowers rates to help the economy, then inflation will spike even higher. It is stuck and they have no way out. They will have to keep printing indefinitely in order to prop up the stock market and fund the deficit, and as they print the Debt-to-GDP ratio will continue to rise and inflation will continue to get worse. This is why from the debt perspective it doesn’t/didn’t matter if Kamala or Trump won - the Federal Reserve is stuck and high inflation is here to stay (unless rates are increased which would cause a market crash).

Recently Jamie Dimon, the head of JP Morgan Chase, agreed:

Speaking on a panel alongside former Speaker of the House Paul Ryan at the Bipartisan Policy Center last week, Dimon said the American government is facing a “hockey stick” effect when it comes to government debt.

He drew on the comparison of the 1980s for context, explaining that in 1982 unemployment was at around 10% while the stock market had sat stagnant for 15 to 20 years. Even with the Vietnam War, America’s debt-to-GDP ratio was around 35%, Dimon said, whereas today it sits at 100%.

“Back then the deficit during a recession—you do spend money in a recession—was 4% or 5%; today it’s 6.5% in a boom time,” Dimon continued.

He added: “If you look at that 100% debt to GDP by [2035] I think it’s going to be 130%, and it’s a hockey stick. That hockey stick doesn’t start yet but when it starts, markets around the world…there will be a rebellion.”

Dimon’s hockey stick scenario could occur as the American government faces higher charges to service increasing levels of debt, potentially in an economy that many are predicting will enter a slow or no-growth era.

This isn’t just bad news for the home of the brave. America’s ability to pay its debts is a concern for the nations around the world that own a $7.6 trillion chunk of the funds. The nations most exposed are Japan, which owned $1.1 trillion as of November 2023, China ($782 billion), the U.K. ($716 billion), Luxembourg ($371 billion), and Canada ($321 billion).

Charging headfirst into a global fistfight with domestic and international markets is the “worst possible way to do it,” Dimon added, saying: “It is a cliff. We see the cliff. It’s about 10 years out.”

Ryan chimed in that the debt spiral is the “most predictable crisis we’ve ever had,” with Dimon agreeing.

So what can Trump do to stave off this crisis? He could either attempt to raise taxes, which he and other Republicans are against; he actually wants to lower taxes. But even raising taxes substantially would only put a moderate dent in the deficit, which would still continue to get worse. Apparently Trump wants to increase tariffs massively from China and elsewhere; I’ll believe it when I see it (in his first term neither China trade reforms nor NAFTA reforms moved the needle at all despite the hype). Alternatively, he could cut spending. Here is how U.S. Federal spending looks:

Any politician that attempts to substantially cut entitlements to the public will not be re-elected and is in danger of public unrest or worse; raising entitlement ages even a year or couple years, a drop in the bucket, would be extremely unpopular. He could try to cut national defense ($821 billion) but would likely be assassinated if he tried, and if it was massively cut the U.S. would lose reserve currency status (it is America’s military might that keeps the reserve currency). Reforming Obamacare didn’t work and it was a weak reform attempt during Trump’s first term anyway. What would he cut then? Very little of the spending is discretionary. He could and should massively cut unelected civil service jobs, who are the enemy of regular Americans and a major negative value-add, but that still doesn’t move the needle much and that would also spark unrest.

So there you have it: the three structural issues facing Trump are massive amounts of Democrat-leaning non-white illegal immigrants and their children, institutionalized vote fraud, along with an extraordinary amount of national debt that can’t be fixed without radical entitlement reform that would get Trump kicked out of office, impeached or murdered. Liberals are already being primed by their hive-mind, pre-inauguration, only a couple days after the election, to hysterically resist without any action having been taken at all.

With that said, this is ultimately bigger than Democrat or Republican; it is the nature of democracy itself - it eats itself:

People want to enjoy comfort and consumption in the moment even if that means their children and grandchildren have to pay the bill, and they will always vote on this basis. That’s human psychology, we see it throughout civilizations and history, and unfortunately for us we are the ones on the receiving end of the mass inflation and devastation caused by earlier eras of consumption. Trump is stuck and he’s not fixing this unless he leads a revolution, not a reform - to nationalize the Rothschild-owned Federal Reserve and issue a debt jubilee, perhaps. But Trump has the mind of a wheeling-dealing merchant, not a Caesar crossing the Rubicon, and he will not do this (and if he tried he would, like so many that tried before to exit the central bank parasitical system, be destroyed). Rather, he will keep spending as inflation continues apace until the next financial crisis.

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Summing it up

Being in pain - emotional, spiritual, physical pain - is the driver for change. The longer and deeper it hurts, the more change one is willing to accept. The right watched a weak 2016-2020 Trump administration followed by four years of Biden Hell which caused a degree of introspection and soul searching, but, in my opinion, not enough. The structural issues of immigration and the national debt cannot be solved without revolutionary action, which as Curtis Yarvin correctly states Trump does not have a mandate for from his voters. Therefore his second term will be a failure. I listed above things that would have to happen policy wise for a long-term reassessment of this prediction.

Now, my blackpilled doomerism was listened to politely by some during the past four years. It will be less popular under a Trump presidency as I hold his feet to the proverbial fire; I care about a politician and his administration only to the extent they properly effectuate the policies I care about. Instead of just dealing with blackpilled despondency and lame, false hopium from the right as seen under the Biden years, we will now have to deal with Q-tard delusional optimism and Trump personality cultists again in the consolidation phase of the egalitarian ratchet effect. In some ways this will be worse than hearing the endless shrieking shitlibs.

Rurik Skywalker

agrees in a Notes comment here. And as

Graham R. Knotsea

states, “The most difficult thing about another Trump presidency is going to be, once again, his fanatical supporters attacking everyone who tries to hold him to his campaign promises. They get just as hysterical as the liberals they make fun of. It’s gonna be rough.” Having one’s “side” be in power reduces one’s ability to introspect and analyze properly; a scanner darkly. Thankfully in some respects the past eight years have clarified for me how things actually work.

Some predictions can take years to play out, not days or weeks or months. The right is myopic and loves short term predictions and claiming they are wrong if they don’t happen immediately. Ernst Junger doubted his prediction that Germany would lose in an adventure in the East for a couple of years after making his prediction in 1939; it took years for him to be proven correct. This prediction of Trump presidency failure is a four year prediction and I believe it will result in (1) continued sustained high inflation from ever-increasing national debt (and an inability/unwillingness to abolish the Federal Reserve and issue a debt jubliee), (2) inability/unwillingness to expel tens of millions of newly arrived illegals, (3) inability/unwillingness to reform compromised election laws, and (4) either war with Iran, Civil War, a massive stock market crash and/or World War 3. I hope I’m wrong and that more positive things are ahead. Let’s see what happens.

Thanks for reading.

1. Right before the 2024 election there was a Freedom of Information Act release of a secret Obama call to sympathetic liberal media three days before Trump’s 2017 inauguration; the release was stonewalled until now. In it Obama said: “On balance, that leads to me to say I think that four years is okay. Take on some water, but we can kind of bail fast enough to be okay. Eight years would be a problem. I would be concerned about a sustained period in which some of these norms have broken down and started to corrode.” It was this attitude that permeated the unelected civil service and resulted in massive, unprecedented efforts to steal the 2020 election. After the steal, these globohomo cretins bragged about it in a Time magazine article where they smugly stated: “They were not rigging the election; they were fortifying it.”

2. As discussed previously, I think crypto is a scam controlled by the CIA/NSA via Tether for multiple purposes.

3. There are certain times which serve as clarifying when one seeks to introspect into one’s own and other’s souls. The response to fraudvirus (“COVID”) was one of those times; I saw things from people I never would have expected otherwise. But an act of election winning serves a similar function from the other side; who is able to keep their wits about them, their reason in check, and not get carried way in the moment? Who can remain level-headed? I may not be doing any call-outs (what’s the point of drama?) but I’m always watching, always observing - mostly in disappointment.

4. Things often become the opposite of what they purport to be: see right wingers like Begin and Sharon who withdrew land for peace, see Charles de Gaulle who betrayed the French Algerians after promising to protect them, see Deng Xaioping who was a committed communist who turned capitalist.

5. There is something occult about the power of harnessing people’s attention. If the system was not able to harness that attention in ways they wanted, they would lose control. They must keep you entertained and engaged in the process so that they can stay in power. To the question of whether the system is top-down or bottom-up, the answer is that it is both; the top-down rulers try out narratives and they run with ones that effectuate buy-in from the public. This is not properly understood by most. See here for more.

6. And according to

Craig Nelsen

, the Hispanics being imported were the most vulnerable and easily manipulable ones that could be found: “The NGO programs being funded here are programs set up in Colombia to transfer Venezuelan “refugees” from Colombia to the United States with special emphasis on “children, particularly unaccompanied and separated children and adolescents; lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, or intersex (LGBTQI+) individuals; older persons; the sick; persons with disabilities; indigenous persons; and survivors, or those at risk, of gender-based violence” as well as “members of minority communities.”

7. There was a noticeable shift in favor of Trump after the world reacted so negatively to Israel in the aftermath of 10/7 (although one may note that U.S. Jews still voted 79% for Kamala). The youth were decidedly pro-Palestinian throughout the West including in top-level universities. Our elites likely wanted to use 10/7 as a Holocaust 2.0 which would provide lots of sympathy and carte blanche to do whatever they wanted, even though it is extremely doubtful that Israel did not at a very minimum have knowledge of the attack ahead of time and let it happen to provide the justification for leveling Gaza. It is simply not believable that many frontline soldiers reported Hamas activity and Israel’s extremely detailed knowledge of its neighbors - to the point of planting explosive devices among hundreds of Hezbollah operatives and having pinpoint information to target the top twenty Hezbollah leaders one after the other. Our elites were likely shocked to learn that their non-white golems throughout the West that were being used to undermine and destroy whites were turning on them, necessitating a major change in strategy, as

James J. O'Meara

explains here and as explained here.